Malta's housing boom going bust

We just had a discussion about buying or renting in Malta and this news article is published today :

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/en/newsdet … t-20120528

About 25 % !! of Maltese property loans are not performing and there is the warning of duplicating the ' Spanish Bubble'. Of course the developers are moaning about their mistakes and miscalculations . Just about the worst you can be called in Malta is ' Developer'. But is it not true ?

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/en/newsdet … e-20120528

Anybody buying into this moaning market must be ......

Cheers
Ricky

Lucky I bought 7 years ago ;)

Great find though Ricky

There is a fundamental flaw in the article - it implies that the govt relaxing planning controls helped pump up the property bubble - ie allowing more supply pushed up property prices - which is non-sensical

"Malta experienced a property price boom between 2003 and 2007 which coincided with a massive inflow of repatriated Maltese savings abroad during the process of Euro adoption."

it didn't coincide, but was caused by

Hi George,

I'm not sure if the cause really matters.

What is typical of a bubble is that the rate of inflating the bubble rapidly increases before it bursts and that is exactly what we can see happening in Malta , especially on Dingli Street in Sliema. Then it bursts with no warning.......

Malta is always a bit late ........even with a bubble -)))

Cheers
Ricky

well the cause matters, as it helps indicate the solution :-)

If the bubble is caused by lack of supply (eg in SE England), then a solution is to allow more building

In Malta the problem was the inability of the govt to control the black economy when the Lm was replaced by the euro. All that dirty money had to go somewhere, and fast, and it was laundered through the property market. The solution in this case is definitely not to relax the building controls, but to allow the property market to find its own level - if some property developers go bust, well, so be it - Malta has the British obsession with owning property, and this crazy idea that high property prices are good for the economy.

Hi George,

so maybe you can answer the question of who is actually buying or supposed to be buying all these unused/unfinished/ just started properties.

Is it really true that , as the money is 'black' the owners can wait for  20 or 30 years to sell there properties at an artificially elevated level?

Some think that the Chinese are buying or the Russians but that sounds like wishfull thinking.

It doesn't make sense .

Regards
Ricky

I don't think anybody is buying (well, there are some transactions, but very few) - there are few forced sellers (some foreigners for sure), and with banks traditionally providing mortgages only with a very hefty deposit, there is little negative equity even if prices are down 20% from the peak.

A lot of the building going on is small scale - there are loads of small plots near me, where either a house has been knocked down, or its infill - the major cost of building here is the land cost, so if the family has owned a plot for generations they may consider their land cost to be zero, and so will build whatever.

I think there is also the issue of builders out of work, taking the opportunity to build a house for selling, and so not only is the land free, but so is their labour cost