El Nino 2015

GMC(SW) wrote:

Lately I have been seeing some conjecture over the upcoming El Nino.

1. What does everyone think will come of it?

2. If it is as bad as predicted, what precautions are you taking?

3. What were the effects last time, for those that were in Ecuador?

4. Is this something we, Expats need to be thinking about and preparing for?

If it results in major rains, which equal flooding, how will this affect services, like delivery of food to stores, the power grid etc.?  Would cities be cut off? Journeymanjack could probably answer the last question best, as he travels the country on a regular basis.

This situation is important, and is only going to get more-so in the coming months, because the weather effects of El Niño peak in December.  El Niño -- meaning "the child" -- was, in fact, named for the Christ child due to the December effect.

However, even the highly knowledgeable Journeyman Jack cannot predict weather and its specific effects to a certainty.

We do know that the El Niño-produced hot and churning ocean currents will be prone to affect the Pacific Coast of Ecuador more than other areas.

If I was in another country and planning to visit Ecuador, I sure as shootin' wouldn't book an oceanfront room for December or January.  This might be a better year to visit primarily in the highlands.

December-January is already a warm time of year in coastal places.  During El Niño, expect hotter and wetter than normal.

In the late 90s, El Niño devastated half of Ecuador's agricultural crops (Wikipedia). 

This year (through early September), high winds have already damaged half of the cocoa crop. ( www.wikipedia.com )

Those in lower-lying areas will need to pay closer-than-usual attention to weather forecasts, going forward.

cccmedia in Quito

Life in the Galápagos islands -- part of Ecuador and 600 miles off the mainland coast -- will be no walk in the park either.

Early 2016 through April will not be a good time to book your once-in-a-lifetime trip to the Galápagos, unless you think that witnessing spectacular wave action is worth putting yourself or your family in harm's way.

As in 1997-98, the fishing industry in Ecuador and Peru is at risk.  The hot ocean waters will replace the usual cold, nutrient-filled waters that fish populations need for optimal production in most years.

cccmedia in Quito

cccmedia,

The comment about Journeymanjack, was related to the possibility that cities could be cut off, do to major rain and flooding. Causing closure of roads etc. He gets around more than most and I thought he could have some insight regarding the question of mobility.

Are you aware of any preparations on the part of the Government, regarding the potential problems that may accompany El Nino 2015 ? Or any lessons learned from the past storms?

I expect there will be a few more houses lost to shoreline erosion caused by changes in shoreline currents and wind driven surf. Flooding around rivers. Probable dengue outbreak.

JK,

Would this eventuality have an impact on your plans for a rental business?

GMC(SW) wrote:

JK,

Would this eventuality have an impact on your plans for a rental business?

Maybe. I'm not too worried about it. I learned my lesson after my first beach house. I'm about 10 meters above sea level and on the land side of the main road. I don't think people will stop visiting beach towns just because of a few natural disasters, and there's still a long dry season. The real challenge is getting my wife to stick it out through the winter.

GMC(SW) wrote:

cccmedia...Are you aware of any preparations on the part of the Government, regarding the potential problems that may accompany El Niño 2015 ? Or any lessons learned from the past storms?

That's a couple of great questions, GMC.  I want to commend you for starting this thread  and the great work you've been doing on the Car Maintenance/Quito thread.

The U.S. Embassy handed out information about EC government emergency websites at the August Town Meeting on Cotopaxi.  Going forward, readers interested in El Niño and government planning for it can follow any information posted on these government websites .. and may wish to post the site URLs on their refrigerator doors. 

I recommend visiting the Cotopaxi thread -- especially Reports 40, 43, 57 and 58 -- via the following link, for the websites and other information relevant to El Niño concerns....

https://www.expat.com/forum/viewtopic.p … 58&p=2

As for lessons with dealing with storm effects, I commend readers to GMC's just-posted information about flooding and mudslide safety in Report #44 of the Car Maintenance thread....

https://www.expat.com/forum/viewtopic.p … =2#2823717

cccmedia in Quito

cccmedia,

Thanks for the positive feedback. 

I have learned many things from this site, and I am happy to contribute. I would not be opposed to meeting people in person, who could benefit from "Hands On" help or training.   

One of this forum's coastal posters has just informed that there will be a meeting about El Niño preparedness this Saturday (September 5, 2015) in Olón (oh-LONE) on the EC coast.  The post says it is being sponsored by the Ecuadorian Red Cross, Cruz Roja Ecuadoriana.

There is no apparent listing of the event at this time at www.cruzroja.org.ec .. and I am contacting Cruz Roja for confirmation of the event and the details.

Olón is a small fishing village is Santa Elena province in WSW Ecuador

The initial report is that a meeting in English will be held at 2 p.m. on Saturday, followed by one in español at 3 p.m.

Here is the link to the preparedness-meeting thread for El Niño....

https://www.expat.com/forum/viewtopic.p … 01#2824185

cccmedia in Quito

Regardless of threat,

It was advised during the recent meeting at the U.S. Embassy concerning Cotopaxi that everyone should have a pre-staged and equipped, "Bug Out Bag".

The question is what to pack?

The first step is to consider the size of your family. Obviously the more members the more items in larger quantities will be needed. This can also make things easier as the load can be split among a couple family members. Depending on who, and what organization you check with, you could have all manner of items.

It is not realistic to have a special bag for each possible event. There are however, certain "Key" items that should be in any kit.

1. Copies of important documents; visas, passports, other I.D., medical papers {prescriptions),
2. Cash; in small denominations.
3. At least 7 days of any prescription medications.
4. Water; quantity varies, but minimum 3 quarts per person per day. Min. 3 days worth. Camel back carriers are best.
5. Food; power bars, anything with high protein, dried foods easily carried, even some canned that can be opened without tools, to make load lighter. Again min. 3 days.
6. First aid kit; basic ointments, bandages, scissors, tweezers, etc.
7. Flashlight/Batteries
8. Local map; a GPS unit, compass etc. Don't limit yourself to technology. It may not be available. A map showing elevations is best.
9. Contact Information; friends, family, authorities etc.

This is a sample of basics. You could add or remove as desired. Divided between two or more bags, with equal contents, some in each bag, would allow more items and better sustainability.

You can never know what is going to happen. To have something is far better than to have nothing. When "It" occurs, there will be little time. Help yourself now. Sit down with pen and paper, start with a basic list like the one above. Based on your family size and special needs, build your own list.

Keep this in mind. Rule of threes.

1. You can survive approximately three (3) days without water.
2. You can last approximately 3 weeks without food.
3. You can survive approximately 3 hours without shelter.

If you keep this in mind, you can build a realistic more kit. Don't count on loading the car. You have to plan on worst case scenario, on foot, outdoors, carrying what you need.

Have your kit/s, ready. Rotate supplies as needed, train your family on use and storage of kit. Always have a "Family Plan", in place.

GMC(SW) wrote:

Rule of threes.

1. You can survive approximately three (3) days without water.
2. You can last approximately 3 weeks without food.
3. You can survive approximately 3 hours without shelter.

Good post, GMC.

With the exception, that is, of Rule 3.

I'm pretty sure that people can survive more than three hours without shelter under most conditions.

cccmedia in Quito

cccmedia,

You are correct, I should have been more specific. I was talking to an environment such as freezing temperatures, or excessive heat. Here in Quito especially the conditions are far more tolerable for such situations. I wish the training I received in the Military could have been in such a place. It was one "Extreme" or the other.

Being cold is bad enough, being wet, and cold. "Sucks".   

Maps with redundant evacuation routes in case one, or two are blocked…..
Masks to keep out the fine dust which may result irritation and difficulty breathing…….goggles to protect your eyes….
Wet wipes for comfort and to clean where water may not be available (and can be used as TP)…..
A good pair of shoes that will be comfortable and stable walking over rough terrain…include an extra pair of socks (at least 1)
Clothing in layers so you can be comfortable without sweating……include in this something waterproof.
A hat and or sun block……
A LED flashlight would be a great idea (with extra batteries)……
Have a list of contact phone numbers also for every member in your group.
As for food, there are some food bars in the stores, nuts and dried fruit are good choices also.

AMDG wrote:

Maps with redundant evacuation routes in case one, or two are blocked…..
Masks to keep out the fine dust which may result irritation and difficulty breathing…….goggles to protect your eyes….
Wet wipes for comfort and to clean where water may not be available...
A good pair of shoes that will be comfortable and stable walking over rough terrain…include an extra pair of socks ...
A hat and or sun block……
A LED flashlight would be a great idea (with extra batteries)……
Have a list of contact phone numbers also for every member in your group.
As for food, there are some food bars in the stores, nuts and dried fruit are good choices also.

Good job, AMDG.

Information about "Go Bags" was earlier posted at Report 41 of the Quito/Cotopaxi thread on the Ecuador forum.  Some information is redundant, but that's probably a good thing in an emergency situation.

I am asking the Home Office to transfer this thread from the Quito forum to the Ecuador forum for wider exposure and because the EC Coast is likely to be the area most affected by El Niño winds and waters. 

I am also asking the Home Office to give special prominence to this thread on the Ecuador forum page that lists EC topics.  Since there have been multiple El Niño-related threads initiated on the forum in the last two weeks, it would be a good idea to have a principal thread so that information does not have to be repeated across the EC forum threads.

Here is a link to the Go-Bags post #41 and the ensuing Evacuation post #42 on the Quito/Cotopaxi thread....

https://www.expat.com/forum/viewtopic.p … 58&p=2

cccmedia in Quito

If you own beachfront property, or own in a low lying area on the coast or near a river, there is a chance that this year's el niño is going to hit you hard. I've been hearing suggestions to do "something" to mitigate potential damage. This is a topic I've researched quite a bit in part from growing up on the water, and because I own beach properties. The urge to attempt to fend off the ocean with a seawall can be overwhelming. The problem with seawalls, is they actually accelerate erosion. The best options I've seen are bringing in sandbags for temporary risk mitigation, and planting the right types of vegetation (the best solution, but one that needed to be started long ago to help with this el niño). If you are beachfront, plant/maintain dune-grass and whatever that weird dune vine is that grows all over Ecuador. Do not drive on the beach, at least not near your or anyone else's property (when the storms blow in the places where people enter and exit the beach with cars erode away first). Near river estuaries, mangroves are your best friend, protect them. If you are just generally in a low lying spot that is flood prone, think about trucking in dirt or sand to create natural barriers in the places where high water is likely to try to enter your property. Secure the new fill dirt with plants that have a good root system or something that grows fast. I'm partial to lemongrass and mint because they also cut down on mosquitos and make a good tea.

JK,

I was about to point out the same examples you made,

As stated above there are ways to mitigate damage, and reduce natural erosion. The planting of various shrubs and trees with deep and or spreading roots is excellent. It helps hold the soil together and in place.

Also in areas identified as low lying or flood zones, the addition of extra drainage will help. In some cases the building of a spillway for drainage can also prevent some flooding. Water like electricity, will take the least path of resistance as it travels, in or out. By providing alternate routes for water to take you can pretty effectively reduce potential damage.

All this will of course depend on various factors; the size of your property, natural resources available, and the amount of money you can or want to devote to it. Even though property may be at this time, affordable. It would be always be sound to protect your investment.

MAYBE SOMEONE IS OUT THERE?

Agricultural sector prepares for the arrival of El Niño phenomenon

Publicado el 04 Sep 2015Por : Mercedes Cabrera

The arrival of El Niño involves a significant drag back of new sediment deposits that could clog pumps of several irrigation boards. Sediment is also a problem for Guayaquil, as this has formed a kind of dam close to the confluence are of the Daule and Babahoyo rivers.

Therefore, since last Saturday, contracted machinery by the Ministry of Agriculture (Magap) and the Municipality of Daule, began to remove the material in the boards of America Lomas, Mate and Higueron, that take water from the Daule river, and until the winter arrives the rice fields of small producers must be watered.

Source: http://expreso.ec/expreso/plantillas/no … amp;tipo=2

El Nino, in the past has forced farmers to change to more resistant crops. I wonder what actions are being taken by farmers around the Quito area?

El Nino preparedness, what I heard on the meeting with the Red Cross in Olon.
Something that broke my heart: One would not be allowed to board a helicopter with pets, they would not take them. One need to make a shelter for our pets and leave supplies for them where they can get to them. Very important to plan ahead.
There are only 2 helicopters which serve the coastal area. 1 in SALINAS, 1 in MANTA.
Towns that are under sea level would be under water in the rains are too hard or for too long: SALINAS, CHIPIPE, OLON, PUERTO LOPEZ. Those were the towns mentioned, but I would add any other town that is very clear is under sea level.
Get copies of documents and keep them in a backpack. -Here my opinion- If are laminated, the better. If are color copies, the better, why? How many times in a Bank or Public Office we have been requested to bring color copies? Probably they would not do copies for us. Better we keep our own, several.
Get a stock of medicines in case one is unable to leave the house. Also: Non perishables food, charcoal (in case there is no power and one had ran out of gas), matches, etc.
Keep cash handy (but do not tell nobody) just in case that there is a blackout and ATMs are not working, or even if there is power and the ATM is working, you can expect them be empty for so many people pulling money.
(This comes from me) In Ecuador we have a saying: "Tragedy never comes alone" Get extra gas tanks, extra fuel, be sure that the tires on our vehicle are in good condition. Think ahead and get ready, just in case.
Would be good if one can get a tag that one can use on a chain around the neck and put on that tag the allergies to medicines, special medical conditions as diabetes, heart condition, etc. or it can be a bracelet, something that can be with you at all times and you don't loose it.
If your house is in an area that might be flooded, get a canoe. Just in case. Life jackets just in case you fall off the canoe or whatever.
Remember that snakes can live in the water. I suggest that one might want to keep some meds in case one get bite by a snake or a tarantula, etc. Keep stitches, just in case the Clinic do not have or had ran out of stock. Rubber boots are also helpful, if one needs to walk on high grass or mud, it helps a lot.
Anti diarrhea meds, pedialite, etc Something that can help you in case of sickness and against dehydration.
If you are in the highlands, remember the areas that are prone to mudslides and avoid them. Please do not drive at night, you would not be able to see a mudslide and stop before getting trap or washed away!
Remember (very important) if you are in the highlands and want to leave the country Quito Airport is the only 1 that has INTERNATIONAL flights (In the highlands). If is raining would be foggy and airplanes would not leave!
GUAYAQUIL INTERNATIONAL airport would be the key to leave the country because there is NO FOG in Guayaquil! It would be keep operating even if rains.
Please, ad all what you can remember from the meeting or if you have experience from natural disasters, please tell us what would you do in this situation.

Be safe!

An excellent point…..
Would be good if one can get a tag that one can use on a chain around the neck and put on that tag the allergies to medicines, special medical conditions as diabetes, heart condition, etc. or it can be a bracelet, something that can be with you at all times and you don't loose it.

But you can also have these things written down in your purse or wallet, and if you are part of a group, this information should be shared (written) with then also.

If part of a group, you should also have a designated meet up place and procedures for emergencies if apart…….

Thanks for the update. The flood prone cities list seems a bit random.

This will give you an idea of the last major El Nino  http://www.eird.org/eng/revista/No1_2001/pagina22.htm

More on 1982 83 and 97-98 Ecuador proper
http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/ni … uador.html

This El Nino has started. It is forecast to be a "Super" El Nino the worst ever on record. Cuenca rainfall for Sept is half of normal. The 4 rivers of Cuenca are now at 10% of normal flow. Typically the El Nino will cause drought conditions away from the coast of Ecuador. Expats on the coast should beware of flooding mud slides roads closed beach erosion and lack of goods and services. Cuenca expats may have to conserve water and could experience rolling brown out due to Low hydroelectric facility levels.

I am planning to visit Ecuador from Nov. 9th to the 20th on a tour around the country.  Seeing that's it's an El Nino year, is it safe to travel then?

Birdmama wrote:

I am planning to visit Ecuador from Nov. 9th to the 20th on a tour around the country.  Seeing that's it's an El Nino year, is it safe to travel then?

Away from the coast you'll probably be fine.  In the coastal area it's still anyone's guess although they think it's likely this could be as strong as 1997-98 and 1982-83 for the eastern Pacific which includes Ecuador and northern Peru and which caused widespread flooding and mudslides.  For a detailed treatment that nevertheless seems to hedge all bets see:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b … rn-pacific

Some excerpts:
"...one of the most frustrating things about El Niño for forecasters is why it doesn't have the same impacts in the same places every time. "

"Although climate models provide objective predictions, models are far from perfect. They have common errors (particularly large in the eastern Pacific)..."

"This year the ocean has accumulated a substantial amount of heat, a necessary condition for El Niño, but this does not tell us whether El Niño will be extreme or not in the eastern Pacific ..."

"Although several climate models are predicting a very strong El Niño, due to their common errors, we cannot fully trust them. Perhaps the only reliable rule is that El Niño can surprise us, and this year could be yet another example."

So no matter what happens, we will be surprised, adds to the excitement.

Coastal areas could be very wet but inland should be fine. November is generally good weather for most of Ecuador. Sept. and November are considered off season for Hotels ect. Just remember the El Nino will cause more rain than normal for the Coast this year and into 2016.

I am also interested in replies to this subject. My boyfriend and I are planning a scouting trip for the month of December. We land in Quito, and were planning to go to the coast from there. Traveling from north to south, we were going to head east to Vilacabamba, Cuenca, Baños, and then back to Quito. In asking others about this idea, I was informed that the coast in December might not be a good idea.
I'm planning our hotel reservations now, so any input on this subject would be GREATLY appreciated.
Should we just tour the Andes region? We come from Seattle, so were hoping to get away from constant rain!
Thank you in advance,
EMoss

More conjecture is of course welcome, that's what this blog is for, but the short answer is - and the most honest answer anyone can give, here or anywhere, is - no one knows.  Many billions of dollars are spent to predict the weather, and still you can't always get a correct answer even two days out.  Sometimes not even within 24 hours, if it's going to rain or not, and how much...

We'll know for sure how bad it was when the weather forecasters can give everyone a "hindcast", after the season...

See if you can give yourselves some flexibility by booking no-cancellation-fee rooms.

What is unpredictable in early October may be clearer a few days out when you are in Ecuador in December.

Also keep in mind that in some highlands places, including Quito, the Christmas-season pageantry and religious rites draw more visitors than any other time of the year.  That -- and the fact that there may be a diversion of visitors here from the coast this year -- may make for a shortage of hotel rooms in the capital this Christmastime.

cccmedia in Quito

Thats why I use words like "could" and "generally" But an El Nino is a fact!! No weather man will dissagree. Or best. Look at the last two here. But your entitled to be negative and brainy if you must!!!

Not to mention the fact that getting around in Quito during the Christmas holiday can be an adventure all its own. Streets can be blocked off for parties and delays by men dressed in drag, it's a traditional thing.

Flexibility is the key thing in Ecuador, nothing will happen as you expect and things will normally, not be as you might expect. Rainy, cloudy, and cool are a given for December. Cuenca could be better or worse, I don't live there and have no desire to.

Where do you live, GMC?  Is El Nino especially bad where you are?

If you take the time to google "EL Nino" you will see how big this one is (ReCORD BREAKER) and how all of them effect the worlds climate!! For example the inland of EC will be drier the coast will receive inordinate amounts of rain. Research is the root to knowledge. Try it.

El Supremo has told Ecuadorians that the latest El Niño will not be as destructive as the one in 1997-98.  Earlier reports quoting scientists had predicted the worst.

In his weekly radio speech, Presidente Correa said "it now appears that it is losing strength" and is less of a threat to the EC coast.

"It will still be moderate to strong, so we cannot let down our guard," he said.

Heavier than usual rains in Ecuador show that escalated effects of El Niño are already being felt.

However, according to scientists, the strongest effects of El Niño will be felt in January and February of 2016.

-- as reported by www.cuencahighlife.com

Your right CCC, But who knows where he gets his info from??? Just like any weather report here is only a guess!! Maybe the Govt is doing the same as with Chickunguna and cotapaxi. Not wanting to scare off tourism they under report events that would effect that! Dr's in the north beaches have said the cases of Chickunguna are much worse that Govt reports say. The heavy rains will aid mosquito infestation a lot.

It goes without saying that one should never take any organizations information at 100% face value. A simple search of various atmospheric organizations will clearly show, what is actually occurring and give realistic projections for possible future events.

Precautions related to travel, life style etc. fall on the individual. If you take a lax attitude, and fall into a false sense of security, expecting any organization to take care of you, you can expect problems.

T hanks for the up date