An Influx to EC From a So. American Country Where It's All Gone Wrong

j600rr wrote:

WTI now under $48. Don't have a live feed to Brent, but would think it has to be getting close to the $50 mark. Can't believe the price of oil hasn't rebounded at least a little. Even if it is in a downward trend, it should have at least taken a little break, cooled off, and gone up some. Wonder just how low this market is going to go before some buyers start coming back on board?

I think we're now going to test $40 as supply numbers continue to seem to come in high.  Bitter cold temps in North America always seem to move oil and natural gas prices up, but not so much, eh?  One way to play energy is the energy sector ETFs, of which I am certain you are well aware.  DBE (Vanguard) and XLE (State Street) are two I follow casually.  Basically, due to sector weighting, you're buying heavily into ExxonMobil and Chevron.  Maybe one more down day and I'll pull the trigger, say, VDE at $104?

Got to do this to myself: 

SawMan wrote:

j600rr wrote:

WTI now under $48. Don't have a live feed to Brent, but would think it has to be getting close to the $50 mark. Can't believe the price of oil hasn't rebounded at least a little. Even if it is in a downward trend, it should have at least taken a little break, cooled off, and gone up some. Wonder just how low this market is going to go before some buyers start coming back on board?

I think we're now going to test $40 as supply numbers continue to seem to come in high.

You could be right. Already have a glut of oil, and no one seems willing to cut back on the output.

Excerpt from Bloomberg.

"U.S. output climbed to 9.14 million barrels a day through Dec. 12, the highest in weekly estimates that started in January 1983, according to the EIA. OPEC's 12 members, which supply about 40 percent of the world's oil, pumped 30.24 million a day in December, exceeding their collective target of 30 million for a seventh straight month, a Bloomberg separate survey of companies, producers and analysts showed."

Meanwhile in  Venezuela the MickyD's announced that the usual "You want fries with that?" are not available due to a dock strike in San Diego.  They have decided to cook up a substitute made from the yucca plant.  Even the name sounds, well, yucky.  Gotta wonder how many more will flee the socialist utopia as a result.

China is loaning 20 Billion more to Venezuela, and 7.5 Billion more to Ecuador. In case anyone was interested.

j600rr wrote:

China is loaning 20 Billion more to Venezuela, and 7.5 Billion more to Ecuador. In case anyone was interested.

That buys a lot of loyalty and oil.  Clearly it will never be repaid in any currency worth anything. Wow.

j600rr wrote:

China is loaning 20 Billion more to Venezuela, and 7.5 Billion more to Ecuador. In case anyone was interested.

The $20billion is over 10 years for energy, social and industrial projects.  Venezuela already owes China $20billion, and supposedly about half of the proceeds from the 600,000 barrels a day shipped to China is used to service said loan.  The odds of default for this year are listed at 90%.

mugtech wrote:

j600rr wrote:

China is loaning 20 Billion more to Venezuela, and 7.5 Billion more to Ecuador. In case anyone was interested.

The $20billion is over 10 years for energy, social and industrial projects.  Venezuela already owes China $20billion, and supposedly about half of the proceeds from the 600,000 barrels a day shipped to China is used to service said loan.  The odds of default for this year are listed at 90%.

Thank you Mugtech. The details were still somewhat fuzzy about how it was going to be structured from the couple of articles I saw last night. Am also reading  that some observers feel it's a debt restructuring agreement in disguise. Appears there is a growing faction in China that want to dump Venezuela completely.

And so has anyone noticed an increase in the number of people from Venezuela showing up in Ecuador?
It seems many of the new members of this forum speak Spanish very well, are from Venezuela.

mugtech wrote:

And so has anyone noticed an increase in the number of people from Venezuela showing up in Ecuador?
It seems many of the new members of this forum speak Spanish very well, are from Venezuela.

Changing my forum language to Spanish from English and looking in all the forums for South America, there seem to be lots and lots of Venezuelans trying to get out while they still can, asking about jobs and living in other countries...

National debt of the United States risen to a record last Thursday at 14.27 trillion US dollars I do not think the others are so bad.   every American, including newborns  owes  52 851 US dollars 

J-Richard-J wrote:

National debt of the United States has risen to a record last Thursday at 14.27 trillion US dollars....every American, including newborns, owes  52 851 US dollars.  :

My check is 'in the mail.'

but it is still a few must send 270 million Americans, and that a quarter of China

J-Richard-J wrote:

but it is still a few must send 270 million Americans, and that a quarter of China.

Uncle Sam just passed the collection plate on April 15th.

It's implausible to say he needs to put his thumb on the taxpayer's throat entering a presidential-election cycle, no matter how many Chinese are holding his 'marker.'

cccmedia in Quito

J-Richard-J wrote:

National debt of the United States risen to a record last Thursday at 14.27 trillion US dollars I do not think the others are so bad.   every American, including newborns  owes  52 851 US dollars 

Long term debt, not due any time soon
Still the best place to earn your money, then retire elsewhere

mugtech wrote:

J-Richard-J wrote:

National debt of the United States risen to a record last Thursday at 14.27 trillion US dollars I do not think the others are so bad.   every American, including newborns  owes  52 851 US dollars 

Long term debt, not due any time soon
Still the best place to earn your money, then retire elsewhere

In well over 200 years the U.S. has only been debt free for 1 of those years. Not that I'm advocating the reckless spending that has become the U.S. government, but for some reason people seem to think that the U.S. has a past history of being fiscally responsible.

Comparing another countries debt to the U.S. is comparing apples to oranges. Sure there is many issues facing the U.S. economy, but one thing there is no shortage of, is people willing to pump money into it. Where as many of the other countries can't say that.

j600rr wrote:

In well over 200 years the U.S. has only been debt free for 1 of those years.

That year was:

    (a) 1777
    (b) 1859
    (c) 1928
    (d) 2000

cccmedia wrote:

j600rr wrote:

In well over 200 years the U.S. has only been debt free for 1 of those years.

That year was:

    (a) 1777
    (b) 1859
    (c) 1928
    (d) 2000

NONE OF THE ABOVE

Think $20 bill

mugtech wrote:

cccmedia wrote:

j600rr wrote:

In well over 200 years the U.S. has only been debt free for 1 of those years.

That year was:

    (a) 1777
    (b) 1859
    (c) 1928
    (d) 2000

NONE OF THE ABOVE

Think $20 bill

Andrew Jackson served two full terms (1829-1837).  So we'll go with his last budget year, 1837.  We are aware that Martin Van Buren served during March-December of that year.

cccmedia wrote:

mugtech wrote:

cccmedia wrote:

That year was:

    (a) 1777
    (b) 1859
    (c) 1928
    (d) 2000

NONE OF THE ABOVE

Think $20 bill

Andrew Jackson served two full terms (1829-1837).  So we'll go with his last budget year, 1837.  We are aware that Martin Van Buren served during March-December of that year.

That's a great name isn't it? Van Buren was even referenced on Seinfeld.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkpnOTr8k9I

1836 it is, panic of '37 ruined everything, probably why Van B was so mean

j600rr wrote:

Comparing another countries debt to the U.S. is comparing apples to oranges. Sure there is many issues facing the U.S. economy, but one thing there is no shortage of, is people willing to pump money into it. Where as many of the other countries can't say that.

I think a good measure is debt-to-GDP, which reflects the ability of a government to pay its bills without borrowing more money.  The U.S. stands out quite poorly:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt-to-GDP_ratio

This ratio will continue to worsen as more and more debt is incurred each year (annual budget deficits add about between $500 billion and $1.5 trillion to the national debt depending mainly on entitlement spending) and GDP fails to break out of a 1% - 2% range - the "New Normal." (There's been no 6% - 8% GDP growth as in past recoveries.)  In other words you math geeks, the numerator is increasing and the denominator is decreasing.  Not good.

SawMan wrote:

j600rr wrote:

Comparing another countries debt to the U.S. is comparing apples to oranges. Sure there is many issues facing the U.S. economy, but one thing there is no shortage of, is people willing to pump money into it. Where as many of the other countries can't say that.

I meant to also say that I do agree that the U.S. has attracted tons of foreign investment, but it seems that it has been mainly (i) to escape from some worse economy (a "flight to safety"), (ii) take advantage of the asset bubbles being pumped up in the U.S. in some real markets and the stock market by the Fed, or (iii) both.  This proves you don't need to be beautiful, just not as ugly as others.  Europe continues to prove itself to be too ugly to date.  Money coming in only means others are doing worse.  We're just going along hoping no one notices the debt we have outstanding and that we'll always be able to borrow more and more in the future.  If you think today's debt-to-GDP ratio looks bad, what happens as more and more of the unfunded entitlement programs consume 50% and then 70% of every Dollar collected in tax revenue?  Whoa.  I hope I'm out of here.

SawMan wrote:

SawMan wrote:

j600rr wrote:

Comparing another countries debt to the U.S. is comparing apples to oranges. Sure there is many issues facing the U.S. economy, but one thing there is no shortage of, is people willing to pump money into it. Where as many of the other countries can't say that.

I meant to also say that I do agree that the U.S. has attracted tons of foreign investment, but it seems that it has been mainly (i) to escape from some worse economy (a "flight to safety"), (ii) take advantage of the asset bubbles being pumped up in the U.S. in some real markets and the stock market by the Fed, or (iii) both.  This proves you don't need to be beautiful, just not as ugly as others.  Europe continues to prove itself to be too ugly to date.  Money coming in only means others are doing worse.  We're just going along hoping no one notices the debt we have outstanding and that we'll always be able to borrow more and more in the future.  If you think today's debt-to-GDP ratio looks bad, what happens as more and more of the unfunded entitlement programs consume 50% and then 70% of every Dollar collected in tax revenue?  Whoa.  I hope I'm out of here.

Exactly Sawman. For the record I by no means think the U.S. debt , and the general direction the government and country has been headed for quite some time is a good thing. Flight to safety as you mentioned is exactly what is happening, as well as taking advantage of the asset bubbles that the fed is pumping up. Now if big money institutions, and governments from around the world lose confidence in the U.S., and stop pumping money in, then there could be big problems. Personally don't see that happening anytime soon. Who knows. Maybe long term it would be a good thing for the U.S. credit rating to be downgraded? Maybe then they can come to their senses a little.  It's kind of scary to think how much we will be taxed in the future if the politicians, and leaders don't get a hold on things isn't it? But for now they can continue to borrow as much as they want with virtually no ill consequences. Ain't the big boys, and politicians getting screwed. It's Joe Public.

j600rr wrote:

Exactly Sawman. For the record I by no means think the U.S. debt , and the general direction the government and country has been headed for quite some time is a good thing. Flight to safety as you mentioned is exactly what is happening, as well as taking advantage of the asset bubbles that the fed is pumping up. Now if big money institutions, and governments from around the world lose confidence in the U.S., and stop pumping money in, then there could be big problems. Personally don't see that happening anytime soon. Who knows. Maybe long term it would be a good thing for the U.S. credit rating to be downgraded? Maybe then they can come to their senses a little.  It's kind of scary to think how much we will be taxed in the future if the politicians, and leaders don't get a hold on things isn't it? But for now they can continue to borrow as much as they want with virtually no ill consequences. Ain't the big boys, and politicians getting screwed. It's Joe Public.

It took many decades to get here and it'll take many decades to get out IF something is done.  It won't fix itself. As I say, if you're trying to get yourself out of a hole, the first thing you have to do is stop digging.  The U.S. is still digging and some politicians and parties are even wanting a bigger shovel!  So, I'll refrain from any optimism until I see us first take the first tiny step and actually pass and stick to a balanced budget.  Then, you pay the debt as it becomes due and quit pushing it down the road.  I dare say this won't happen.

SawMan wrote:

It took many decades to get here and it'll take many decades to get out IF something is done.  It won't fix itself. As I say, if you're trying to get yourself out of a hole, the first thing you have to do is stop digging.  The U.S. is still digging and some politicians and parties are even wanting a bigger shovel!  So, I'll refrain from any optimism until I see us first take the first tiny step and actually pass and stick to a balanced budget.  Then, you pay the debt as it becomes due and quit pushing it down the road.  I dare say this won't happen.

Your pessimistic outlook is well founded. At the risk of offending many here who are of this generation, I will flat out say absolutely nothing will happen as long as the baby boomer generation is in power. It has been well documented that as a whole that generation was a generation of spend, spend, spend, save nothing, and when you can't afford to spend then just pass it on to your children, and grandchildren. Nothing will change until my generation x, and more importantly the millennial generation start to gain control in the political arena. Now if these generations will make positive changes we will have to wait to find out. Good news is you boomers set the standards so low it would be almost impossible to do any worse.

j600rr wrote:

It has been well documented that as a whole that generation was a generation of spend, spend, spend, save nothing, and when you can't afford to spend then just pass it on to your children, and grandchildren.

Meant to say then just pass the debt on to your children, and grandchildren. In case anyone wasn't sure, but imagine most understood what I meant.

Throwing fruit at a public speaker used to be a way of registering displeasure in some societies.  Modern-day Venezuela is an exception.

Recently, a 54-year-old Ven woman named Marleni Olivo tossed a mango through an open bus window and it hit Presidente Nicolas Maduro near the left ear.  The incident was caught on video, which has since gone viral in Venezuela.

On the yellow fruit, she had written, in Spanish, "Call me if you can."

What she wanted was her own apartment in the province where El Presidente was visiting with supporters while in his bus when the mango-tosser made her point.

Maduro kept the mango and showed it later at one of his customary live TV appearances, announcing that Sra. Olivo would be getting that new apartment from the government within two days.

Sources:  CNN, and (video) Last Week Tonight With John Oliver.

Stellar! So if we pitch tropical fruits at south American heads of state we'll get an apartment? What's not to love about that deal?

Thanks for the heads up, cccmedia. I shall walk the streets of Ecuador with ready fruit in my pocket awaiting opportunity.

Dadgum, I wish mangoes would do that for me in America.

Maybe, rotten apples

Now Venezuala is an official disaster. A person can deal with quite a bit, but now there is the very real possibility of a shortage of beer, in the not to near future. Not like life is very good in Venezuela now. Shouldn't a bloque at least be able to enjoy a nice cold beer?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33376485

j600rr wrote:

Now Venezuala is an official disaster. A person can deal with quite a bit, but now there is the very real possibility of a shortage of beer, in the not to near future. Not like life is very good in Venezuela now. Shouldn't a bloque at least be able to enjoy a nice cold beer?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33376485

No one needed another reason to get out of town, like having no vodka in Russia.

One would think that a failed government would take pains to ensure a copious supply of alcohol as a way to deaden the senses.

Looks like the currency has lost 89% of it's value in the last year. How's the old saying go, "When it rains it pours."?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk … upt-again/

j600rr wrote:

Looks like the currency has lost 89% of it's value in the last year. How's the old saying go, "When it rains it pours."?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk … upt-again/

Looks like the parade will continue, even increase.  Iranian oil about to hit the world market gonna mean lower prices, more problems in Venezuela.

j600rr wrote:

SawMan wrote:

.

It has been well documented that as a whole that generation was a generation of spend, spend, spend, save nothing, and when you can't afford to spend then just pass it on to your children, and grandchildren.  Good news is you boomers set the standards so low it would be almost impossible to do any worse.

I think an apology is in order sir and maybe an attitude adjustment

BobH wrote:

One would think that a failed government would take pains to ensure a copious supply of alcohol as a way to deaden the senses.

Russia aka USSR has the highest rate of alcoholism on the planet

j600rr wrote:

SawMan wrote:

j600rr wrote:

.

. Already have a glut of oil, and no one seems willing to cut back on the output.

Excerpt from Bloomberg.

"U.S. output climbed to 9.14 million barrels a day through Dec. 12, the highest in weekly estimates that started in January 1983, according to the EIA. OPEC's 12 members, which supply about 40 percent of the world's oil, pumped 30.24 million a day in December, exceeding their collective target of 30 million for a seventh straight month,."

Maybe OPEC wants to keep it's 40% share and stick it to the US. They can hold out a lot longer with depressed prices. Yes our friends the Saudis....business is business, right?