Political developments

Another example of how it is much harder to build something up than for vandals to drive it into the ground.

I have just posted on my blog, an item that should be of interest to those interested in Cayman's politics. The title is "Cayman's political impasse", and for the next few days it will be the first post you come to when you click on the link. Comments welcome!
http://barlowscayman.blogspot.com

Breaking news this morning is that our Premier has been arrested on suspicion of corruption. This has been pending for quite some time, delayed only by the British Government's reluctance to bite the bullet and do the dirty deed. We don't know how it will all play out yet, but it's likely that Britain will do to us what she did to the Turks & Caicos - suspend our constitution and rule by decree for a couple of years.

I have anticipated that eventuality in several recent commentaries on my personal blog. They are identifiable by their titles, for anybody who wants to check them out. Now I must away and write a new post, bringing the story up to date!

Wow. Thanks for the breaking news, Gordon. What a situation for the Cayman Islands - it now resembles the Turks & Caicos in all the wrong ways.

Good news for all our rivals, Nomad - including Ireland!

Indeed. It's sad to see the credibility of a jurisdiction go down the tubes. (It's painful to see it happening in my birth-country of the US as well.) Ireland's been working hard on rebuilding its fiscal credibility. Unfortunately it's decided to do that through tax increases on top of more tax increases on everything under the sun. Don't ask the ruling class to take a cut out of their gravy-train though - that would be a step too far.

There's more Trouble in Paradise, which I have taken as the title of my latest update on the political situation just this morning. Cayman seems to be edging ever closer to independence from Britain, and that would mean the end of our tax-haven and of our prosperity. There are plenty of other "offshore" tax-havens in the world, so Cayman's clients will be well cared for. Even so...

Until it happens, of course, it may *not* happen. And in any case its relevance to this ExpatBlog forum is limited to those who may be looking for a great tax-free place to work and live. For them, as for me, it's a crying shame.

Thanks again for the updates, Gordon. It seems so obvious that the corrupt political elite in CI are simply trying to escape any accountability from London. Too bad they seem like they will get away with it.

One question, which may be better answered on your own blog: Do you thing the seeds of this drift towards independence were sown during Tony Blair's time in government and his policy of greater local rule in the Caribbean?

I don't really think so, Nomad. It's part of Britain's colonial b-s that the Foreign Secretary periodically invites each colony to go out on its own. "Britain will not stand in your way." But some of the colonies are special cases: Gibraltar, Cayman, Bermuda, even St Helena and Falklands. Not to mention Diego Garcia. The promise of true independence is not one that Britain can make alone. USA or China or Russia would be in like a shot to re-colonise any little island left on its own. China has already bought the politicians of most of the former British colonies in the Caribbean; and remember how Grenada fared, when it looked like falling under Cuba's influence back in Reagan's time.

And here is the latest summary from our online news service. Trouble in paradise, indeed!
http://caymannewsservice.com/politics/2 … r-politics

An excellent summary of developments, Gordon. Thanks for the link. I suppose now the big question is what will happen next? Will the UDP be punished at the polls? Will there be a meaningful shift towards better government? Or is the cat of corruption, cronyism and generally bad government already out of the bag?

Nomad. As long as immigrant-Caymanians are ineligible to contest for seats in the Legislative Assembly, and as long as all native (ethnic) Caymanian candidates rely on anti-expat rhetoric to get elected, we expats see little long-term hope for the Islands' stability.

As I have said on my blog (which I know you have read), the British FCO could sort things out by suspending our Constitution and ruling by decree from London for a couple of years. It knows that as well as we do, but its general policy is to play the indecisive wimp as long as it can; so we don't know what it will do. We have our fingers crossed.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty is eroding international confidence in our tax-haven. Some of us longtime immigrants - and some native Caymanians too - are looking for bolt-holes, just in case.

Next week we elect 18 representatives ("MLAs") for the next four years, and the 18 will then elect a Cabinet from among their number. There are three teams of candidates plus a whole bunch of unaffiliated independents. Because of all the turmoil and drama of the past few months, it's anybody's guess who will end up in control of our tax revenues.

Britain's FCO is monitoring the action, but its clerks' attention wanders from time to time, and if there's one thing our local rulers excel at its taking advantage of the FCO's short attention-span. The bases of our prosperity ought to be safe, but the greed, corruption and incompetence of local governments elsewhere in the world remind us of sod's law: what can go wrong, will go wrong.

Those interested in Cayman and its future should keep a wary eye on developments. My blog will carry occasional reports, and our local web-forum Caymannews service.com will carry frequent ones.

Gosh, it's high time for another update on politico-economic developments. Here are the first couple of paragraphs from the latest post to my personal blog, "More trouble in Paradise".

"Government's financial mess has us all worried, who care what happens to Cayman. Certainly there are many, many more worried long-term immigrants than there used to be. Whenever two or three of us are gathered together, the mood is sombre. Collectively, we aren't feeling as comfortable as we used to do about the economic future.
"The loss of confidence among long-term expats may soon reach critical mass. The endemic xenophobia of a large portion of the ethnic Caymanian community is a large factor. It is oppressive, and there are no signs of its abatement. Despite some reformist mumbling in the six months since the last general election, nothing has changed. Political interference with the private sector's independence will continue as far ahead as we can see. So will the anti-expat sentiment that drives our Islands' immigration policy.
"Let's be honest about it. Public-sector employment will not be reduced: its heavy hand will not be lifted. State-owned enterprises will not be sold to private investors; state-operated services will not be outsourced. Corruption will not be curtailed; cronyism and nepotism will not be suppressed. The Public Debt will not be paid down to any significant degree; unfunded government pensions and medical expenses will stay unfunded. The rollover policy will come and go according to the whim of the moment."

As always, thank you for the update, Gordon. It's devastating that Cayman is on the brink of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs, if it isn't dead already.

Gordon,

As someone who had the opportunity to travel to the Caymans dozens of times in the 80s and 90s, your chronicle of the slow motion ruin of this island has to be one of the more depressing things I've read...

Oh well.  I guess things were a good bit better in the 80s and 90s in a lot of places than they are today.

Minimum Wage. Some readers of this Cayman forum might be interested to know that there is a strong move to introduce a formal Minimum Wage. I am among those who are opposing the proposal, and my reasons are set out in my latest post on my blogsite. (The blog doesn't allow comments, by the way; but of course comments can always be posted on this thread.)

Excellent arguments against it, Gordon.