Presidential election

I think violence will come up whoever will be the new president. As of 22 July one should be cautious....

Here in Bali Jokowi is reported to have won by a substantial margin...around 75% is the number most often cited.

I remember well the riots in Denpasar in October, 1999 when Ibu Mega lost her first bid for the Presidency, but the climate was much different back then as all of Indonesia was still in early recovery from the devastating financial crisis.  This time around I dont sense the deep tensions that so defined that period.

So far, so good, in that these tensions seem to be less, and at least for now, under control.

Prabowo is certainly not going to "go quietly into the night" and that defines his tough Suhartoisque political nature.  It is no surprise that he did concede defeat on election night, or the following morning. 

My best guess is that the findings of the KPU will support the results given by the majority and most credible of the quick count agencies, and that Prabowo will not push this further through the Constitutional Court.  This should (hopefully) be all over in about 8 days and Indonesia can once and for all close the book on the Sukarno/Suharto era. 

As for the potential for violence, my opinion is that this would be more likely if Prabowo was declared the winner by the KPU than if Jokowi is declared the winner.  Old folks tend to not take to rioting as quickly or as voraciously as younger folks, and it will be Jokowi's huge base of youthful supporters who would be most angry if Jokowi is the declared the looser.

I cant see there being too much trouble who ever gets the presidency. I believe that there are too many people now who wont allow that to happen both domestically and internationally. Whilst there is the fear still apparent that violence could break out on a big scale I can't see anyone tolerating it and therefore not encouraging it. Indonesia has too much to lose by taking the backward step of turning the country upside down due to miscast vote and ballot.
If politicians, the military or any other organisation incites trouble and violence amongst everyone here, then I fear that Indonesia will lose all its global and economic power and respect and even the most hardheaded person wont want that (surely?!) and its backwards we go.

That's all true, but money, power, ultra religious stupidity doesn't always take logic into account, if ever.

I didn't vote for any of them.

Luke, in fact it should be like as you said but here things in general are different.

At least one should not be surprised if things getting nasty. Still all quiet but who knows what can happening on/after 22 July.

Interesting video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAM3wVX1kPs

Yikes Fred!  One could edit and dovetail that into the movie, The Year of Living Dangerously!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/1 … 98817.html

Subianto's insistence that he was on course for victory, and his allegations of fraud, have led to speculation in some quarters that the superrich candidate might be trying to himself fix the results or will refuse to concede. That would put pressure on the country's democratic institutions and could possibly lead to violence.

The 63-year-old said he may well challenge the result in the Constitutional Court because of the alleged vote fraud. The court, whose past chief justice is serving a life sentence for accepting a bribe to rule in favor of a plaintiff in a regional election dispute, has two weeks to rule.

Fred, he will not concede....obviously he earlier called in thousands of his supporters to be stand at KPU headquarters on 22 July as what I was told.

Even though he now is saying that he will not deploy them for the result announcement......you believe it ??

Perhaps it's true because he is preparing also for the court case.

It could all well just be bluster Pak Fred.

Let's hope so anyway.

http://en.tempo.co/read/news/2014/07/17 … on-July-22

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Didik Hariyanto, Director of Prabowo-Hatta Campaign Team Volunteers said that thousands of supporter will come by the General Election Commission (KPU) Office on July 22. Didik said that they will be there to secure the exit poll result and give support to the KPU.

That is nothing short of bloody dangerous.

As a note, my daughter's school have brought the Ramadan holiday forward by a couple of days, in fear of violence when the results are announced.

It would be a major crime against Indonesia and Indonesians if some bugger tried a coup.

Ubudian wrote:

It could all well just be bluster Pak Fred.

Let's hope so anyway.

According to the Globe, Bali has voted for Joko, by a larger margin than other areas of the country; I sort of expected that.
Prabowo is winning in just one area, Joko in most.

So, today is the day! Let's wait for the official announcement from KPU.

(Btw, did you know "Jokowi Menang Capres2014" became a trending topic in twitter since last night?)

Edited after saw mas fred's post below 
So, today is NOT the day! I mistakenly remember today's date. So silly. Ugh

On more serious note, please don't wear any checkered shirt on 22 July (or any political attributes). Just for safety.
And you might want to avoid area around KPU office. Just in case.

Stay safe and awesome, everyone!

The official results are due tomorrow.
Police had erected barricades around the election headquarters, manned by 300 officers.
Tuesday will see 22,500 coppers on the streets, with the army supplying 30,000 troops as back up.
Hopefully that will put the idiot elements off trying to play silly sods.
If it doesn't, Jakarta is going to be a mess.

D*mn, I thought today is 22 July 
So, sorry! Thank you, dear Fred. If it's not because of you, I'll still think today is 22 July. Yes, be careful tomorrow. Hope for the best condition for everyone.

(Brb bury my head into the ground out of embarrassment.)

middleborn wrote:

D*mn, I thought today is 22 July 
So, sorry! Thank you, dear Fred. If it's not because of you, I'll still think today is 22 July. Yes, be careful tomorrow. Hope for the best condition for everyone.

(Brb bury my head into the ground out of embarrassment.)

When I stop making mistakes, I'll start having a go at others for theirs.
As I'm imperfect, I'll have to let you off.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/ … 8O20140720

(Reuters) - The Indonesian ex-general widely thought to have narrowly lost this month's bitterly contested presidential election will not accept the official result until allegations of cheating are investigated, one of his top aides said on Sunday.

The rejection is certain to raise concerns of a protracted wrangle that could undermine confidence in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, or even trigger violence that has so far been almost entirely absent from this election....
....After the Prabowo Subianto camp previously insisted that it would abide by the KPU's official result of the July 9 election, it suddenly accused it of failing to properly investigate alleged cheating at the polls.

"If they don't, then that is a crime. This very much calls into question the legitimacy of the whole process," the former special forces commander told a hastily called news conference in a Jakarta hotel after meeting his key coalition partners...
....Asked if he was challenging the credibility of the Elections Commission, Zon said: "Yes, of course."

This could so easily take Indonesia into an uprising, possibly as far as a civil war, but some have no care about that, as long as they get the chance of money and power.

Optimistically thinking, all these preparations by the police and TNI is only due diligence so as not be caught unprepared should the worse ensue tomorrow.

It is wise, your suggestions that expats in Jakarta stay very aware tomorrow, just in case.   

With good luck the final results will show Jokowi out ahead with at least a 5% margin which Prabowo will be under pressure to accept. 

As I wrote earlier, all those tensions which were so evident in 1999 are just not present, or I should say, are not present in and around Bali.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/jok … tes-tally/

Joko looks as if he's the official winner- now we have to see if there's going to be a power grab.

The Globe article isn't mincing words, is it?

Reckless reporting until the official KPU announcement, IMHO.

With that said, it's probably accurate since keeping the lid on this sort of news would be almost impossible.

No doubt there have been "leaks" from inside the KPU.

I only wish it was 2 points more than the reported 53%.

Amin Rais (PAN) send his best wishes already.......

The counts are pretty much sorted, Jokowi being the clear winner.
Prabowo's supporters seem to be jumping ship.
It's all down to the more extreme elements.
If they fold, Indonesia is safe.

Pak Fred...just watching TV One and it's already quite busy outside Kantor KPU.

Do you know what time the announcement is planned?

Keeping my fingers crossed, as I bet you, Luke, and others are as well.

After the morning I have had with my son my house looks like the aftermath of a riot. However I will be riding across the city very soon. I might see something outside the government buildings but that will be all. Mind if I see a lot buses on the tollway from the east that could cause trouble later.

I have no information as yet, but released counts show a clear Joko win.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/

TV one has its own problems.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/tif … tion-bias/

The police are ready for trouble.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/pol … on-result/

Indonesian TV
http://www.tvonlineindonesia.net/

Just rode from Tebet to Puri Indah in less than 35 minutes. There was no police, no traffic, nothing on the toll like the normal Tuesday mess. Either the city is holding its breath or many people are taking advantage of the 'security issue' and enjoying a day off or puland mudik.

lukereg wrote:

Just rode from Tebet to Puri Indah in less than 35 minutes. There was no police, no traffic, nothing on the toll like the normal Tuesday mess. Either the city is holding its breath or many people are taking advantage of the 'security issue' and enjoying a day off or puland mudik.

Glad to here that I hope everything is okay for everyone today.

Fyi, locals followed this official Traffic Management Center Jakarta Metropolitan Police twitter account for traffic infos in city https://twitter.com/TMCPoldaMetro but they are tweeted in Bahasa Indonesia.

I've heard that the official announcement will come at 2PM JKT time?

I may pop into Jakarta tomorrow, using my little motor car.
If it's that quiet, it'll be a great time to go to Mangga Dua.

Ubudian wrote:

I've heard that the official announcement will come at 2PM JKT time?

Roy, it will be 4pm Jakarta time.....

OK Tom, great and many thanks!  I can watch it live from here in Bali during martini hour...5PM!   

Start enjoying now Roy.....in his speech on TV he said he will not accept the result.

Time for some beers and popcorn...

For those that appreciate the importance of honest election reporting.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31FFTx6AKmU

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-28400752

Indonesian presidential election candidate Prabowo Subianto has said he is withdrawing from the election process, alleging massive fraud.

At this point, I intend to be brutally honest - he's acting like a big kid, telling the world he's taking his ball home because his mates wouldn't let him win.
Frankly, he's disgusting.
I'm glad he's lost, Indonesia is a wonderful country, and they don't deserve an twit in charge.
I've come to love this country, so want the best for it, and Jokowi is by far the best choice.

Certainly not the most dignified way to finally close the book on the Sukarno/Suharto era.

Indonesia has spoken, it's time to move on.

Ubudian wrote:

Certainly not the most dignified way to finally close the book on the Sukarno/Suharto era.

Indonesia has spoken, it's time to move on.

Ones hopes it has ended.
Some of his more radical pals may decide not to throw the towel in just yet.