How Safe Is Quito From Cotopaxi?

Nobody in this town is worried about volcanoes.

Cotopaxi volcano is 50 kilometers away from the capital, and it's not like there is any chance of molten lava pouring into Parque la Carolina this weekend.

In the remote chance that some volcanic ash is somehow wafted into the capital or vicinity, odds are 99.999999 percent that your family will survive it well.

cccmedia in Quito

Much closer to Quito than Cotopaxi is Guagua Pichincha (google it).  "...one of Ecuador's most active volcanoes."  The city extends part way up the slopes of Pichincha.  No one worries about it.

It never did anything when I lived there.  In more recent years it's thrown up some cloud ash.  You can find many pictures on the 'net.

Almost everywhere in the Andes is subject to some kind of disaster - earthquakes, mud and rockslides, floods, wildfires. 

It's wise to take these things into consideration, but I would not let worries about some low-probability natural disaster shape all my thinking, but I would prepare for emergencies - I would do that anywhere.

cccmedia wrote:

Nobody in this town is worried about volcanoes.

The nearest one is over 75 miles away, and it's not like there is any real chance of molten lava pouring into Parque la Carolina this weekend.

In the remote chance that some volcanic ash is somehow wafted into the capital or vicinity, odds are 99.999999 percent that your family will survive it well.

cccmedia in Quito

Thank you very much for your prompt reply.

The reason for my concern is researching it online none of the sites have any real intel as to what would happen to Quito if it really had a big eruption. They say it's averdue.

So, in your opinion what do you think would happen if it really did pop?

It would appear that Tumbaco and San Rafael would get hit with Lahar's pretty well. But if it was big what about Quito?

I'm not a fear monger or anything of the sort. I'm a disabled former Marine who has the job of ensuring his family's safety and well being just as all men do.

That's the reason for my question.

Thank you again for any information you may have.

Patrick

OsageArcher wrote:

Much closer to Quito than Cotopaxi is Guagua Pichincha (google it).  "...one of Ecuador's most active volcanoes."  The city extends part way up the slopes of Pichincha.  No one worries about it.

It never did anything when I lived there.  In more recent years it's thrown up some cloud ash.  You can find many pictures on the 'net.

Almost everywhere in the Andes is subject to some kind of disaster - earthquakes, mud and rockslides, floods, wildfires. 

It's wise to take these things into consideration, but I would not let worries about some low-probability natural disaster shape all my thinking, but I would prepare for emergencies - I would do that anywhere.

Thank you.
Yes, I would of course prepare for the possibility of a challenge. I always take those things seriously. I've been in 2 natural disasters; an earthquake my 1st day in boot camp many years ago and a tsunami on the big island in Hawaii. That changes your preparation quite a bit more towards reality.

Thank you, Patrick

Worst case scenario for Quito IMO...the city gets a couple of inches of ash on rooftops and outer surfaces.

San Rafael?  Tumbaco?  Latacunga?  Who knows?

This ash deal has happened in the capital only once since 1660 (you read that right) and that occurred 16 years ago.

So maybe we don't get ash again here till the year 2525...if man is still alive, and woman can survive....

cccmedia in Quito

source for ash years...Wikipedia

cccmedia wrote:

Nobody in this town is worried about volcanoes.

The nearest one is over 75 miles away....

cccmedia in Quito

Cotopaxi may be up to 75 miles away by motor vehicle, but is only 50 kilometers from Quito as the cuervo flies.  My earlier post has been corrected.

The Cheese Desk regrets the error.

cccmedia in Quito

Thank you very much for all your answers.

Greatly apreciated.

Thank you, Patrick

cccmedia wrote:

Worst case scenario for Quito IMO...the city gets a couple of inches of ash on rooftops and outer surfaces.

This ash deal has happened in the capital only once since 1660 (you read that right) and that occurred 16 years ago.

So maybe we don't get ash again here till the year 2525...if man is still alive, and woman can survive....

Your comment reminded me of a farm we bought in Spokane WA in 2001.

It had an outdoor patio with a corrugated fiberglass covering. The whole patio cover was a wreck so we took it down. Much to our surprise all the dips in the corrugation well full of long hardened volcanic ash that had spread all over the inland northwest after Mt. St. Helens blew, nearly 30 years before. It was still there, no one had ever cleaned it off. Fine stuff, like talcum powder. The soil on our property also had quite a few alternating layers of ash and rock - I should know, I did enough digging in it.

I worked for UPS in Spokane. Everybody in the building there had lived through St. Helens and had stories. Apparently it was days after the eruption before any of the delivery package trucks were able to go out on the road again, every single one of them was totally clogged up with ash in the carburetors and had to be cleaned to get them running again. The ash from Mt. St. Helens landed predominately ENE of the mountain and traveled a good long way.

Volcanoes can do very strange things.

It's always interesting to me what people fear when making a relatively drastic move from first world to a third world countries. The probability of being  seriously injured or killed as a result of violent crime, automobile accidents or even train derailment accidents of late is so much greater  than the likelihood of being killed in a natural disaster. Certainly I would be wary of moving to the Phillipines but that's about it.The incidence of heart disease and diabetes in the US linked to unhealthy lifestyles also leads to many more untimely deaths untimely deaths

suefrankdahl wrote:

It's always interesting to me what people fear when making a relatively drastic move from first world to a third world countries. The probability of being  seriously injured or killed as a result of violent crime, automobile accidents or even train derailment accidents of late is so much greater  than the likelihood of being killed in a natural disaster. Certainly I would be wary of moving to the Phillipines but that's about it.The incidence of heart disease and diabetes in the US linked to unhealthy lifestyles also leads to many more untimely deaths untimely deaths

How 'bout those tornadoes that rip through Oklahoma and the Midwest?

SawMan wrote:

How 'bout those tornadoes that rip through Oklahoma...?

Frankly, SawMan, you are far too valuable to this forum to constantly be exposing yourself to the intense heat and natural threats that can plague the Oklahoma-Texas region.

I urge you to review the thread Quito Expats Welcome Texans This Summer:

https://www.expat.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=444087

cccmedia in Quito

SawMan wrote:

suefrankdahl wrote:

It's always interesting to me what people fear when making a relatively drastic move from first world to a third world countries. The probability of being  seriously injured or killed as a result of violent crime, automobile accidents or even train derailment accidents of late is so much greater  than the likelihood of being killed in a natural disaster. Certainly I would be wary of moving to the Phillipines but that's about it.The incidence of heart disease and diabetes in the US linked to unhealthy lifestyles also leads to many more untimely deaths untimely deaths

How 'bout those tornadoes that rip through Oklahoma and the Midwest?

Can never understand why people keep rebuilding there or the gov't keeps giving them FEMA money to do it. Never lived there myself so maybe I'm missing something. It does cost a lot to relocate. I dunno. But to have that kind of anxiety every year. Relative to the number of tornadoes  though deaths are miniscule. I've read that they actually to tend to form and travel more often in wide open spaces.

Miguelito strayed from the essence of this Cotopaxi and volcanos thread, so I have moved the conversation about his new topic -- mold in the EC highlands -- to Report #35 of Fielding Your Questions:  New Members Want to Know....

https://www.expat.com/forum/viewtopic.p … 89#2612045

cccmedia in Quito

A seismic event occurred south of Quito on Friday.  I did not see signs of ash fallout in Centro Histórico or the old-airport area, places where I was in the early evening.  Nor have I been able to confirm an Expat's anecdotal online report that the new airport was closed.

cccmedia in Quito

Here are the details as reported by ABC News....

Four blasts inside the Cotopaxi volcano sent ash shooting several miles or five kilometers into the sky Friday, coating highways, homes and cars just south of Ecuador's capital with a fine gray powder.

Scientists said the 19,600-foot-high volcano (5,987 meters) did not seem close to a major eruption.  The volcano is about 30 miles south of Quito (50 kilometers) and is Ecuador's tallest active volcano.

Such explosions occur when molten rock, or magma, meets water and produces a violent steam release, scientists said.

As a precaution, the authorities restricted access to the park surrounding the volcano and prohibited ascents of the peak, which are popular among mountaineers.

source:  ABC News

Photos and aerial video of the event are available at www.rt.com ...
or google rt.com Ecuador volcano capital alert

Hi, yes here's a link to it: http://www.wired.com/2015/08/cotopaxi-e … nce-1940s/

This is why my question was a valid one.These were minor eruptions.

My wife has been blaming the poor air quality in N. Quito on the ash, but it could just be pollution combined with the power of suggestion. I'm not there to verify, at the moment. Ash is the first thing I thought of. We had significant ash fall in Tacoma, WA from Mt. St. Helens. It does do a lot of long term damage to your lungs, but as others here have pointed out, it would have to be a huge eruption to have a impact worth worrying about.

In general, I think people worry about all the wrong things. It's not the volcano that's gonna get you, it's the lack of seatbelts in the back of your speeding taxi.

Amen. People that drive on American interstates that worry about volcanos near Quito probably shouldn't move there in the first place. There's usually a fair amount of warning. Don't know about tsunamis on the coast or if there is any high ground to get to. But with that new map link guess I could find out

Based on the last few years of natural disasters think I'd hesitate to move to the Phillipines.. Lots of places on the Eastern Seaboard I might avoid during hurricane season. Also the Jersey Shore at this point depending on who is charge of disaster relief.

I'd like to make something clear.

I'm not worried about a volcano in such a way as that I would be more concerned about it than driving or any other activity.

I'm the man of the family and the family's security and safety fall under my jurisdiction. As such, I would be negligent in my responsibilities were I not to investigate every possible harm that could befall my charges.

The subject has been hinted about on a couple of occasions. Where, well if you're scared you should just stay home type of an attitude.
I don't mind at all. I understand wanting to justify your decision you made.

I do feel that for the sanctity of the forum and to invite new questions that may end up being interesting topics it might be best to curtail making said the point of a comment or reply.

Just so it's understood. I'm a disabled former combat Marine. When it comes to the safety of my family my level of preparedness knows no bounds. I've survived a few natural disasters because I had a plan before it happened. The reason for my questions was that ignorance is not bliss in preparedness.

Thank you, Patrick

With all due respect Patrick, as the mother of a former combat veteran and for many years the single parent of a teenage boy I understand the concerns one has for their family. As a three year member of the Forum I suggest you take a look at the "Safety in Ecuador" thread where many safety concerns are discussed if you haven't  already checked it out. As well, you will find there the very imformative postings of a like minded military veteran from Cuenca

You can type that into the search box at the top of the page in the green banner and click on the search icon

No offense intended

Sue

Mostly domestic Flight Cancellations at this time for UIO:
Lan EcuadorXL 15:03 Guayaquil 07:05 -Cancelado
Tame EQ149 Loja 15:40 Cancelado
Tame EQ215 Coca 15:50 Cancelado
Tame EQ209 Lago Agrio 16:00 Cancelado - http://aeropuertoquito.com/informacion-de-vuelos/

Not all delays today into UIO & GYE are Cotopaxi Ash Plume related: --“There is an issue with air traffic control impacting all airlines' east coast flights. Please plan accordingly,” American Airlines said on Twitter.: http://wtvr.com/2015/08/15/leesburg-faa … s-flights/

Actions to take for ash fall? -- http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash/todo.html

Stay alert & prepared,
JourneymanJack.com

Thank you Sue.

No offense taken whatsoever.

Thank you for the tip on how to search the forum better, greatly appreciated. I'll do that now.

Though no one can know what another has been through. I do empathize with you in what you've been through in life to my own tiny degree. There are some similarities there.

Thank you, Patrick

journeymanjack wrote:

Actions to take for ash fall? -- http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash/todo.html

Quito area Expats, consider printing out the information from the site Jack provided, in case of future ashfall.

It's a lot of information.  Here are three key points....

1.  Plan on being indoors for several days to avoid ash inhalation.  Make the home as ashproof as possible.

2.  Have supplies on hand for at least 72 hours --  food, water, your medicines, in particular.

3.  If you must go outside in an ash event, use a filter mask.

One Expat posted online yesterday that she ignored such guidelines ... and it took her two years to recover from the results of ash exposure.

cccmedia in Quito

Second-day update from Agence France Presse...

A million surgical masks will be distributed in Quito, a city of 2.3 million people, according the mayor, Mauricio Rodas, to protect against ash inhalation in the wake of Friday's seismic event.

Residents in towns and river settlements in Cotopaxi province, 30 miles or 45 km from Quito, have been ordered to evacuate, according to an EC risk management official.

A yellow alert or mid-range warning is in effect while the volcano continues to stir.

El Presidente said 400 people have been evacuated.  He called a state of emergency so he can send military personnel to affected communities.

Earlier, officials warned that landslides of volcanic debris were possible near the volcano.

(AFP)

Apparently, some ash has wafted north across the city line into Quito proper.  As mentioned, Quito is about 35 miles (50 km) north of the Cotopaxi volcano.

My doorman Sunday evening, who lives in South Quito, told me he encountered ash in the air this weekend and would wear a surgical mask home after his shift if it was available.

A few people wearing masks or bufandas (scarves) over their noses and mouths were noticeable on my trips around town this weekend -- but not many.  I did not wear one and did not notice any ash.

Most of South Quito is basically a Gringo-free zone, so Expats may pretty much escape this ash event unscathed.

cccmedia in Centro Histórico, Quito

Keep in mind while reading the latest Cotopaxi update that the population of Quito is about 2.7-million.  A reminder:  Quito is about 35 miles or 50km from Cotopaxi.

From Agence France Presse, today, Tuesday, August 18, 2015....

Quito (AFP) - Nearly 325,000 people could be affected by an eruption of Cotopaxi, the volcano looming beyond the Ecuadoran capital of Quito, officials said Monday.

The biggest risk is from an eruption melting the 5,900 meter or 19-thousand foot mountain's snowcap and triggering massive melt-water floods and lahar mudflows that could sweep through nearby towns, Ecuador's minister of risk management ... told a press conference.

Considered one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world, Cotopaxi sent an ash plume high into the sky on Friday, before spewing several smaller clouds and leaving surrounding towns with a light dusting of volcanic ash.  The last eruption was in 1877....

Ecuador's Geophysical Institute reported early Monday that there had been no new ashfall and little sulfur smell in the area during the previous 24 hours.

But they labeled internal activity in the volcano "high" and surface activity "moderate."

The state of the volcano, the institute said, was "actively erupting."

There are no lava flows, according to Ecuador's security minister.

(AFP)

The Oracle of Oregon has made an excellent suggestion for metro-Quito Expats -- stock up on bottled water. 

As a retired nurse, she relentlessly is thinking about health-promoting concepts and the fallout from Cotopaxi is on her mind.

As the Oracle asks, who knows whether the water sources might get contaminated?

cccmedia in Quito

Subject: Message for U.S. Citizens: Town Hall on the Situation at the Cotopaxi Volcano

What: Town Hall Meeting with Ambassador Adam Namm
Why: Situation at Cotopaxi Volcano
When: Saturday, August 22, 2015 at 2 p.m.
Where: The U.S. Embassy at Avenida Avigiras E12-170 y Avenida Eloy Alfaro (next to SOLCA) in Quito, Ecuador

The U.S. Embassy in Quito Ecuador invites all U.S. citizens to a Town Hall meeting regarding the situation at the Cotopaxi Volcano. Ambassador Adam Namm and other members of the Embassy staff will discuss ways to stay informed in light of recent volcanic activity, and resources for emergency preparedness. Attendees will have the opportunity to ask questions.

Only U.S. citizens and their immediate family members (spouses and minor children) will be admitted to the Town Hall. U.S. citizen attendees must present their U.S. passport for admittance, and all attendees must provide official identification (passport or cédula).

Please RSVP to [email protected] using the subject line
“(number of persons) will attend the Town Hall on August 22,”
so that the Embassy can properly prepare for this event.

We strongly recommend that U.S. citizens traveling to or residing in Ecuador enroll in the Department of State's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program. STEP enrollment gives you the latest security updates, and makes it easier for the U.S. embassy or nearest U.S. consulate to contact you in an emergency. If you do not have Internet access, enroll directly with the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate.

Regularly monitor the State Department's website, where you can find current Travel Warnings, Travel Alerts, and the Worldwide Caution. Read the Country Specific Information for Ecuador. For additional information, please refer to our “Traveler's Checklist” page. Updated information on travel and security in Ecuador may also be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States or by calling 1-202-501-4444 outside the United States.

Contact information:
U.S. Embassy Quito
Avigiras E12-170 y Eloy Alfaro.
Phone (593-2) 398-5000
[email protected]
http://ecuador.usembassy.gov/

U.S. Consulate General Guayaquil
Avenida Jose Rodriguez Bonin and Calle Santa Ana, San Eduardo
Phone (593-4) 371-7000
[email protected]
http://guayaquil.usconsulate.gov/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--All ways be Prepared--
journeymanjack.com

Thanks JJ for posting all the Embassy and State Dept info .Very glad they are having a meeting for all of you down there.

Sometimes people feel that State Dept warnings are exaggerated and some of them are. In general they are very current for all the hot spots. As of Jan 1, 2015 update there is a WORLD WIDE "caution" for American citizens living and working abroad. Also travelers. It is a very comprehensive website with good country specific info

"Actively erupting" with potential to affect 325K people...Did not know it was considered one of the most dangerous volcanos in the world. Nobody saw or predicted with any accuracy what happened with Mt. Saint Helens. Not too many people were in the path of the lava flow. Think there were only a few fatalities including some idiot photographer that had himself helicoptered to the summit wanted photos of crater before the whole thing was over. The mountain took of few years to go from completely grey from the massive mudslides.before it started to green up. Haven't been up I-5 lately. There's probably a fair amount of animal life by now..

Not sure of the name of the agency in the US that monitors world wide seismic, tsunami and volcano type activity, Think it's in CA. Likely better info than the Ecuador Geophysical Institute. Maybe there will be  satellite photos that show significant ash particle cloud and the direction(s) they are moving in. The only agency that comes to mind is NOAA

Hope you are all stocked up...food, water, meds. Don't know where your electricity comes from but I would make sure you had a flashlight, batteries and candles. Lived thru some wicked hurricanes.

Don't know what the mayor has provided  in terms of surgical masks. The cheap little paper ones become wet and permeable very shortly after you start breathing into them. So if you have to go out you'll need to figure something out

To quote JJ Be prepared.
Must of been a Boy Scout

AFP has best on the ground reporting

suefrankdahl wrote:

"Actively erupting" with potential to affect 325K people...Did not know it was considered one of the most dangerous volcanos in the world.

According to an Associated Press report, "The volcano is considered one of the most dangerous volcanos due to a glacial cover that makes it prone to mudflows and its proximity to a heavily populated area."

El Presidente declared "prior censorship on the volcano" on Saturday.  All media are prohibited from publishing information about Cotopaxi that doesn't come from an official source.

(AP)

cccmedia wrote:

Apparently, some ash has wafted north across the city line into Quito proper....My doorman Sunday evening, who lives in South Quito, told me he encountered ash in the air this weekend and would wear a surgical mask home after his shift if it was available.

The owner of a small tienda near La Basílica cathedral overlooking El Centro told me late this morning (Wednesday) that he encountered small amounts of volcanic ash in his neighborhood on Monday and Tuesday.  It was 'all clear' over there today.

This store owner told me the best places in Quito to get surgical masks are pharmacies and medical supplies stores.

cccmedia in Quito

Subject: Hey CCCmedia, Message for U.S. Citizens: Town Hall on the Situation on Cotopaxi.

Why: ..don't we put another Quito expat get together for after the Town Hall Meeting,
Where: ...MexiCali & G-Spot, Diego de Almagro E8-10 y Calama In "La Mariscal district"
Quito, Ecuador --"Un Bar & Grill con las mejores Hamburguesas, Alitas, y Comida mexicana fresca!! Con un toque a lo ecuatoriano!! Ahora con cerveza artesanal de alta calidad, cuatro sabores!"-- facebook.com/MexiCaliQuito/timeline

When: ...after the Town Hall meeting at US Embassy -Saturday, August 22, 2015 at 2 p.m.- so say around 4pm, and for those that don't make it to the town hall, could get briefed at G-Spot...?

Hope to see everyone there,
My Cousins were scouts,
I was a shoe shine boy:)
JourneymanJack.com

journeymanjack wrote:

Town Hall (at U.S. Embassy in Quito) on the Situation on Cotopaxi.

Why don't we put another Quito expat get together for after the Town Hall Meeting,
Where: ...MexiCali & G-Spot, Diego de Almagro E8-10 y Calama In "La Mariscal district"

The Mariscal location makes sense because the new Embassy's location (Avigiras and Eloy Alfaro) is so remote from Quito's Gringo-rich areas.  G-Spot is right in the heart of Gringolandia.  (Hence, the G-Spot name.  )

cccmedia in Quito

journeymanjack wrote:

hall, could get briefed at G-Spot...?

Hope to see everyone there,
My Cousins were scouts,
I was a shoe shine boy:)
JourneymanJack.com

Well you seem to have the right stuff so no matter

A travel and tour company confirms there never was a closing of Quito's new Mariscal Sucre International Airport due to Cotopaxi's activity that began one week ago today.  Some flights were canceled there at the outset.
source:  www.adventuresmithexplorations.com

My barber, who parks his car near La Basílica cathedral in Centro Histórico, told me today the car was completely covered with ash early this week in the outdoor parking lot he uses.

I personally did not encounter any visible ash all week and did not see it on roofs, streets or cars.

cccmedia in Quito

cccmedia wrote:

A travel and tour company confirms there never was a closing of Quito's new Mariscal Sucre International Airport due to Cotopaxi's activity that began one week ago today.  Some flights were canceled there at the outset.
source:  www.adventuresmithexplorations.com

My barber, who parks his car near La Basílica cathedral in Centro Histórico, told me today the car was completely covered with ash early this week in the outdoor parking lot he uses.

I personally did not encounter any visible ash all week and did not see it on roofs, streets or cars.

cccmedia in Quito

I appreciate the updates and the local intel. Really helpful in knowing what's really going on.

Thanks!

Early headlines from this weekend's Cotopaxi Town Meeting at the U.S. Embassy in Quito...

U.S. Ambassador to Ecuador Adam Namm and a panel of native Ecuadorian experts briefed about 200 U.S. passport holders on the  topics of Cotopaxi volcano's history ... emergency preparations ... and government planning in case of a major eruption.

Ambassador Namm said the two principal dangers are volcanic ash from a major eruption ... and devastation in the immediate area of the volcano if a major eruption melts the Cotopaxi ice cap and produces a mud flow that picks up debris and boulders on its way down the mountain and beyond.

The briefers said it is unpredictable whether Cotopaxi's volcanic activity will die down or will produce a major eruption.

They said people living near Cotopaxi may have less than an hour's notice between a possible major eruption and when the massive mud flows hit populated areas.

Families were told to have an emergency evacuation plan, and everybody was warned to put together a "go-bag."  More on these issues in upcoming posts.

Tip from the meeting;  in case of ash arriving at your home, after closing windows and doors, moisten cloths to plug gaps that would otherwise allow ash to get inside.

More news later on many of these Expat network stations.

cccmedia in Quito

Nothing mentioned about potentially worsening political unrest and what to do if it affected expat life?

La Oracula qui quiere saber

The Oracle who would like to know in her own elementary espagnol