Fewer Australians coming to Philippines because of FX rates ?

Well the pesos is strengthening against most currencies a lot of expats I know are complaining that their pensions are the lowest there ever been
Peter

Same with the Euro.
Last November it was 56 Pesos.
Now it's 46.

blueoakey wrote:

Well the pesos is strengthening against most currencies a lot of expats I know are complaining that their pensions are the lowest there ever been
Peter

It does seem to be.  My last two transfers, each of A$10,000, have given me 440,000 pesos followed by 350,000 pesos, so a loss of 90,000 pesos due to currency changes.

Time to return to Australia ?

However,it was even worse in 2008-2009, will it go back up again as it did back then ?

See the big drop in the chart below...
PHP-AUD 2006-2015

swedish krona , last year this time 69 now 51 pesos .....more fun in philippines ,actually its no idea to coming here with these rates

Interesting topic, with each currency based on the industrial growth (exports).  With no simple answer.

It will be interesting to see how the Philippine economy grows.  For me I feel that one of the biggest draw backs for the Phil's is the fact that it is an island, close to China and Japan, and generally a long way from large first world countries. The reason being an isolated island is a draw back, is that for the export of manufactured products, it will always be expensive for major trading countries to import from the Phil's due to the cost of transport.  Compared to other third world countries that are closer to large first world countries, where wages are similar to the Philippines.  As we are aware the export of Filipino workers (sorry to phrase it in such an economic term) is one of the Philippines greatest incomes, (with success being driven on the fact that English is so.

One thing that may strengthen the Phil's economy is if the Politicians get them selves sorted out.  It is hard for business to deal with the Phil's as it seems that each time an election is held and a new government is elected, they then change so many deals/rules made by the previous government.

For Australia, how well its economy will go in the future is any ones guess.  It is also an island a long way from any major economy.  My 2 cents worth is that Australia is not going anywhere, Aust does not have a large export manufacturing base due to high wages and its distance to other countries, that have a need for imports.  The mining industry is the only thing stopping Aust slipping to a third world status.  All the farms are being sold off to overseas companies so in the future Australia will not draw any real income from farming products.

In summary countries are like a business, if you cant sell something to some one (another country) then you are going down the tubes.  (Simply relate the currency to a share price)  Will this be Australia's future, is it going down the tubes?  Until we see a drop in the standards of living in Australia paralleled by a decrease in the cost of labour.  Australia will not be able to compete as a major manufacture.

I guess my response does not answer any questions, it does show how complex the issue is, yet for me as a self funded retire who will never get a pension from the Aust Government, it is a major topic for me.

Let me you the effect it will have on me:

At 30PHP to one AUD I will have enough money to live on until 85 years of age
At 25PHP I will be able to go through until 78 years of age
At 35PHP I will be able to 95 years of age
At 40PHP through until - for ever.

I see the OZ dollar dropping as low as 25 Pesos to the dollar perhaps by the end of 2016...I  also predict being OZ is in a huge real estate bubble, the housing market will crash by as much as 50% by the end of 2018...

vetretreat wrote:

I also predict being OZ is in a huge real estate bubble, the housing market will crash by as much as 50% by the end of 2018...

I've been following the predictions of the impending Property Crash in Australia since 2003, when I bought an Investment property for just over $200k.  I got concerned when it hit $400k, and sold.  It's now worth $600k.

Would I still have it, if it wasn't for these crash reports ?  Maybe not in reality, but, in hindsight, I wish I hadn't sold it

Predictions of a property crash

September 2003: "Housing market is at the top of its bubble"
30th of June 2008: "20-25% price crash over next few years"
21st of July 2011: "The crash is picking up speed."
January 20, 2012: "Prices could fall more than 60 per cent"

The crash may actually never come.  Cheaper properties are available if people want them, or need something cheaper. But it does mean being over an hour to the City or the Beach.

Detached House: 3 Bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, double garage 150 sqm new house on 427 sqm land
For $336,000 (4.2 years average full time earnings)
75kms North of Brisbane. 35km to the beach.

But that might be $1m in Sydney !!  For those who need to be there, and can afford it.  Too many seem to be able to afford it and are pushing the prices up by Demand for them.  If these rich people stop buying it may crash, but they haven't stopped or slowed down yet

Full-Time Adult Average Weekly Total Earnings in May 2015 was $1,545.60 ($80,371 pa)

But now OZ is in a big economic down turn which even during the crash in the US in 08 thru 10 did not really influence OZ..More and more Aussies are being put out of work with a foreseeable increase in home foreclosures which will raise inventory in return will reduce pricing...I still think they are in for a rude awakening just like what happened in the US and Europe like the old saying: "What goes up will come down"!!

vetretreat wrote:

.More and more Aussies are being put out of work with a foreseeable increase in home foreclosures which will raise inventory in return will reduce pricing...I still think they are in for a rude awakening just like what happened in the US and Europe

Unemployment isn't that bad in Australia when compared to the past..
The average August Unemployment Rates for FULL TIME work between 1978 and 2015 was 6.98%
The current August 2015 Unemployment Rate for FULL TIME work is 6.30%

It has been a lot worse.

I know that some countries used to be linked (not floating) directly to the USD.

Can any one let me know if the PHP is linked to the USD or is it floated?

vetretreat wrote:

I see the OZ dollar dropping as low as 25 Pesos to the dollar perhaps by the end of 2016...I  also predict being OZ is in a huge real estate bubble, the housing market will crash by as much as 50% by the end of 2018...

Yep I agree I do think that the Australian real estate bubble is bust is coming.  Based several things:

  1 - the banks are now allowed o lend money past of the age of 60, the banks and the people buying are then planning to pay off there mortgages with Superannuation (pension) money.  The flow on effect to the retirees (who are the ones now aged 45 and lower) will be huge, as they will have less to spend, (after they pay off there mortgage), if enough at all, and then have to go to the government for help social services, and who will pay for this?

2 - If the economy improves, even just a hint of long term improvement, the interest rates will go up, so even the people reverenced above will not be able to cover the rising interest rates on their home loans.

3 - Australian are living longer, and as such reduces the availability of housing.  This can be solved with the opening up of land for development, or a huge support buy the government for decentralisation from the major cities.

4 - As mentioned by some one else here, jobs are drying up and the unemployment rate is increasing.

5 - The overall amount of personal debt on loan (Credit Cards) is huge as such many Australian are the veneer (look good) rich.


In regards to the AUD to the PHP, this will also be affected by what the PHP does.  I have asked a question on this above and am hopping that some wise head here, will be able to respond.