If UK were to leave the EU?

fruge wrote:

I think you got that one wrong gng. Australias economy relies heavily with china, and we have the best economy in the world at the moment.

and if china implodes or cuts off trade it will have the worst - you confirm my point - over-reliance on one economy

Yeh, your right on that point, but who else do you would you want to get involved with? In my opinion every country on your side or the world seems to be going down the drain. As far as china imploding, dont think that will happen for a while, though there is talk of the chinese people uprising against the government. That information is coming from local chinese here. Dont know how accurate that information is.

Australia is very self sufficient. Even in bad times here, its no so bad.

If any young people out there looking to get ahead in life, they should be looking at coming here. At the moment they are crying for workers to work in the open cut mines. Minimum wage of 120,000 euro a year

georgeingozo wrote:

Australia sells raw materials to China - the UK doesn't have any

Other than ;

Oil and natural gas.

Coal

Iron Ore.

Limestone.

Small amounts of lead, tin and gold.

Salt

Water!! 

UK is now a net importer of oil, and I cant see China buying coal from us when they have loads themselves with much lower production costs.

UK imports a lot of its gas too, from Russia I believe.

Yep, UK is a net importer of raw materials overall, esp in energy

Got your point guys. Lets just thank god that there is a bit all around the world for everyone. Nothing worst thasn poverty.

ricky wrote:

Catalonia just voted against leaving the EU. It is to be seen what happens in the UK .

Where did you read/hear that? I do not believe that happened. And indeed I lived in Catalonia for some years and I do not think that Catalans are eurosceptic at all. I think you are confused with Catalonia voting to leave Spain which has not official happened yet either.

It will be worrying if we leave the UK, I presume we would still be able to stay in Malta, but pensions worry me particularly if they rise annually as now I may have to return to UK, but rental in UK is so very expensive.

The Maltese living in the UK will be allowed to vote in the referendum, along with the Irish and Cypriots. Also UK nationals living abroad for less than 15 years. That rules me out, it's almost 20 years ago I left.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-32872211

http://www.timesofmalta.com/mobile/view … ill.569570 One hopes that it doesn't take them as long to send out postal votes ... What would be easier is if they opened the British high commission as a polling station a week before

There will probably be a hell of a lot more UK expats living in the EU who want to vote in this referendum compared to a general election. There's a lot more at stake for them. That's potentially 2 million postal votes they will have to send out, that's a lot of mail.

and those 2 million could decide the vote, as I suspect at least 75% would vote in favour (turkeys and voting for Xmas springs to mind)

I would have said closer to 90%, but for sure it's going to be a significant number voting to stay in.

It also has some of the most expensive real estate in the world and currently the cost of living is higher than the U.K.  Let's be a bit more realistic here!
See ya, Ozchook

Ozchook wrote:

It also has some of the most expensive real estate in the world and currently the cost of living is higher than the U.K.  Let's be a bit more realistic here!
See ya, Ozchook

where ?
did you mean to reply to another topic ?

Yes, thought I was replying to remarks about Australia reliance on China
Sorry,

I'm trying to get a better understanding of what this vote will mean.  I am a US citizen and my husband is UK. We will be arriving in Malta in August.  If the vote is for leaving the EU, how likely is it that we would have to leave Malta?

Jasminej wrote:

I'm trying to get a better understanding of what this vote will mean.  I am a US citizen and my husband is UK. We will be arriving in Malta in August.  If the vote is for leaving the EU, how likely is it that we would have to leave Malta?

I wouldn't worry too much, firstly all persons legally resident will retain that right to residency (you are gonna have to trust me on that one)

secondly a vote to leave the EU triggers an article in the Lisbon treaty which means that a 2 year negotiation process begins. (those who arrive in UK or UK arriving abroad DURING that 2 year period MAY be treated differently depending on those negotiations)

you will be here before the referendum is actually held

you will be here as the spouse of an EU citizen

finally the POLL data in the UK is pretty much evenly split on leaving/staying (no account taken of expat proxy/postal votes) however when asked about any reform of the EU the poll data is 75% to stay. Don't forget UKIP only got 12% of the vote this month.

the other things that have a bearing are who leads either side of the campaign and how popular they may be at the time. the "split" in UKIP was precisely because some supporters of the campaign to leave do NOT want Farage leading the campaign. he is loathed and loved in equal measure lol

all good

Thanks for your reply.  I was just worried about making another big move in a few years and really don't want to do that!

you are very welcome. its very difficult to cheer you up too much without being moaned at for being political, which the referendum isn't. (in and out voices in all parties) suffice to say David Cameron does NOT want to leave the EU hence a positive question. and with a wafer thin majority he is too well aware the referendum bill is reasonably amendable and the elephant in the room of course is the referendum is to stay in or leave the EU but makes no mention of the single market. there is an overwhelming majority across all parties in the UK house of Commons to, not only, stay in the single market, but expand it.

If for example the vote was a majority to leave the EU I will eat my hat if we don't then become part of the EEA, which has free movement of people anyway.

Thanks.  I don't really follow UK news/politics but I guess I need to start!

Interesting article in the DM today..........

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article … annan.html

Supports what I have always said that you can separate Trade from  the political side.

Terry

tearnet wrote:

Interesting article in the DM today..........

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article … annan.html

Supports what I have always said that you can separate Trade from  the political side.

Terry

its ok tomorrow's headline will be being in Europe is carcinogenic - then next week not being in Europe will be bad for your health

robpw2 wrote:

tearnet wrote:

Interesting article in the DM today..........

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article … annan.html

Supports what I have always said that you can separate Trade from  the political side.

Terry

its ok tomorrow's headline will be being in Europe is carcinogenic - then next week not being in Europe will be bad for your health

ha and don't forget to stay out of the sun but not get rickets lol

Jasminej wrote:

Thanks.  I don't really follow UK news/politics but I guess I need to start!

as if to prove my point, in todays Sunday Times, as part of an article, current polling is 51% to stay in EU 39% to leave EU, that is without expat votes and the undecided not "redistributed" to the 2 options. Also that is without any reform and it is also worth noting that the Murdoch press is beginning to lean towards staying in the EU.

as for "following" why bother, you have me on here lol

I just checked the odds on the result of the referendum, I've never met a poor bookie, they very rarely get it wrong. It's a hell of a lot closer than I thought it was going top be.

http://bettingzone.oddschecker.com/poli … hip-result

When the Scottish referendum started it was an absolute odds-on certainty to be a No vote, but it got pretty close in the end, squeeky bum time. So who knows where public opinion will go between now and the vote. But Farage and his buddies have got a lot less ground to make up than the SNP had, which is a bit worrying.

On An Island wrote:

I just checked the odds on the result of the referendum, I've never met a poor bookie, they very rarely get it wrong. It's a hell of a lot closer than I thought it was going top be.

http://bettingzone.oddschecker.com/poli … hip-result

When the Scottish referendum started it was an absolute odds-on certainty to be a No vote, but it got pretty close in the end, squeeky bum time. So who knows where public opinion will go between now and the vote. But Farage and his buddies have got a lot less ground to make up than the SNP had, which is a bit worrying.

the yes vote in the Scottish referendum increased its numbers as it gathered momentum, however the very early polls said 54% would vote no and that held fairly steady and in the actual vote 54% voted no. in other words the committed don't waver it was the undecided that increased the yes vote.

odds on favourite in a 2 horse race? hmm I would stick £10 on the outsider if I was still a gambler, and lose lol

those odds are implying something like a 75-80% chance of UK staying in EU, so not that close

the BBC has done a handy ready reckoner. you will see it says EU expats resident in UK unlikely to be asked to leave so unlikely we will be asked to leave as in what I was told when I got here....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32793642

I agree "unlikely" but not certain - all depends how nasty the "divorce" would be

georgeingozo wrote:

I agree "unlikely" but not certain - all depends how nasty the "divorce" would be

Even that lovely nice man Farage said he didn't want to kick out legally resident EU citizens, presumably that is the ones that don't have HIV of course )

its not Farage I'm worried about, but the French

  ha haven't they surrendered yet? Lmao

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-32928961 support for staying in the EU at 55% with 69% support among 18-29 year olds. Let 16-18 vote and the odds on staying  in would rocket